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State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden
The article takes the opportunity to elaborate on the State-by-State Political Economy Model (2SPE) to forecast the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. According to the 2SPE, the candidate with popular votes has the power of winning the majority of the Electoral College votes, hence resuming office. The authors obtained the data from the 50 states and assumed that every member state poll counts to win the elections. The results indicated that the election was determined by official outcomes from the locked states, swing states, and battleground states. Consequently, the approach has been used to predict the presidential outcome since 2004 due to its power to reveal accurate results.
Nevertheless, in 2016, the method failed to predict Donald Trumps victory against Hillary Clinton. Despite the failure, it is believed to be one of the powerful tools that can help forecast the 2020 elections. One of the major reasons for such failure was due to the older mechanisms that the model employed. However, the updated 2SPE principle is entirely accurate and can predict who will be the President of the United States of America.
Think the Vote: Information Processing, Selective Exposure to Social Media, and Support for Trump and Clinton
This study proposes using a three-way interaction model to examine the possible winning team in the forthcoming elections. The author of this article believes in three critical theories: Partisan exposure to political information through the new media, ideologies, and information processing. The findings indicate that both Donald Trump and Joe Bidden are exposed to various sources of ideas. Therefore, the application of the above information has a high powerful effect in promoting either Trump or Joe Biden to acquire power. Nevertheless, the study limits Trumps capacity to ascend to power since he has continued to remain conservative and avoided all the possible information that tries to challenge his actions in the office. Subsequently, the three-way interaction model believes that Trump may lose the election if he does not check on the best approaches of engaging in diverse information. On the other hand, it upholds Democrats presidential candidate Joe Biden for his systematic processing of all information. According to the paper, the democrats have mastered the power of significant collection and delivery of information through the new social media.
Populism and President Trumps Approach to Foreign Policy: An analysis of Tweets and Rally Speeches
The political article is mainly interested in President Donald Trumps approach to leadership and foreign policy. According to the paper, Trump has been behaving as populist par excellence. As a result of such conduct, he has been breaking the liberal tradition towards foreign policy. The article proposes a study on the presidents behavior and how it may shape his overall capacity to win the coming elections. The analysis discovers that Trump may still fail in his bid by using only one approach to deal with foreign policy. The populist mechanism has seen Trump opposing some of the most critical aspects, such as immigration, liberal global order, and Universal Healthcare.
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020
This review article provides a historical-based index system to help in calculating the number of possible win in the American election. The key historical-based index takes the opportunity to gauge the key parties performance in the White House since 1984. According to this tool, most of the Republicans have lost to re-election compared to the Democrats. Therefore, it is more likely that Trump will become the second president to lose a re-election bid after George H. W. Bush of 1992. The article majorly draws data from the historical records on the number of re-election that has been experienced between the two parties.
Nevertheless, it fails to consider the changes that have occurred, such as the number of voters, the voting patterns, and the socio-economic variables that have happened over the past years. Therefore, a single application of the principle may mislead and fail to show the right candidate who may win the forthcoming elections. It is, therefore, suitable for integrated mechanisms to be used to help in predicting the grades.
November 3rd will form one of the highly contested elections in the history of the United States. The race will be between the incumbent President Donald Trump and Joe Biden. While Trump, a reality TV star and property tycoon, is regarded as the first American to clinch into the Presidency without prior military or political experience while Joe Bidden is one of the highly experienced politicians in the country (Lichtman 12). Apart from being a senator over the last decades, he was the vice president of the United States of America during President Barrack Obamas reign. A number of indicators have continued to show that Trump may not be re-elected. As a result, this paper aims to explore these factors and determine the Presidents right position.
Pre-election Surveys and Poll Opinion
Pre-election surveys and poll opinions from diverse groups play a critical role in determining the possible winner in every election. In most cases, these reviews are normally carried out by the members of the public, data collected, and effectively analyzed. The use of the pre-election polls has managed to reveal some of the accurate results on the possibility of one candidate winning against the other (Johnson et al 25). According to the reviews that have been conducted in most of the states, it has been noted that a majority of the people prefer Joe Biden to Trump. That trend is a clear indicator that Trump may lose the November 3rd election. Joe Biden has managed to score 60% of the poll compared to Trump, who is still lagging with 40% (Johnson et al 25). However, these marks are not clear as the difference in margin between the two candidates is minimal. On the other hand, the mechanisms are usually susceptible to many errors that can mislead the entire forecasting process. Therefore, an adjustment should be made to ensure that accurate grades are achieved during the surveys.
National and State Predictions
The state-state and national forecasts play a critical role in the overall survey and forecasting of the presidential results during the election. The mechanism usually uses the traditional approach of popular votes to predict the Electoral College poll (Jérôme et al 2). On the other hand, the national option usually focuses on the share of votes delivered from America. The two methods often explicitly address the possible early win by any of the candidates. The national polls have the power of revealing the locked states, swing states, and the battleground states (Jérôme et al 3). Consequently, the state-state forecast can allow the candidate to make the right moves and campaign in their weak areas.
According to the most recent survey, it has been noted that Trump may lose the forthcoming election by a close margin. Unfortunately, President Trump has ignored the power of this prediction mechanism to adjust in his areas of weakness. In most cases, he has refuted the outcomes and continued to believe that he has the majority of votes in most states. The above approach is a clear indication that the President is on the verge of failing to win the polls (Jérôme et al 3). Unlike his counterpart, Joe Biden has continued to work on the best possible adjustments to capture all the swing votes. Therefore, for Trump to achieve his desires, he must accept and address these estimates. However, if he fails to address weaknesses, he is more likely to fall in the re-elections.
Probabilities
Win probabilities are one of the powerful determiners that may illuminate whether a candidate is in a position of winning an election. In most cases, the chance provides accurate estimates of the possible win verse loss in election. For example, a vote share of 60% is a clear indication that the winner may achieve the position by landslide win. According to the most recent probability results, it was noted that Joe Biden had 87% of the total votes cast (Lacatus 4). The candidates share of the two-party vote indicates that he is more likely to win. Given the above assumptions, it is evident that Trump may lose the November 3rd polls. Consequently, he needs to use all the possible chances to predict and clinch into power.
Probability does not only have the power to illuminate but also provides a clear winning team. It is through this approach that most of the international polls have been determined, and results are confirmed. For example, the most recent elections across the globe used the appropriate probability methods to predict the possible outcome of the election (Lacatus 5). According to the outcome, it was clear that this approach has a powerful effect in delivering accurate marks among the electorates.
Models
Models play a critical role in predicting the best overall results that can be achieved in every game. In elections, they have acted as a powerful tool in determining the possible outcomes. Consequently, they have continued to be used to help forecas the presidential election outcome. Some of the most common models that have been perfectly used include the three-way, State-by-State Political Economy, and historical based modtels. According to the three-way model, the candidate exposure to political ideologies, new media, and information processing play a critical role in the overall achievement of best results in the election (Johnson 25). The 2SPE model suggests that the candidate with popular votes has the power of winning the majority of the Electoral College votes, hence resuming office. Finally, the historical model acknowledges that Republicans have had the highest number of losses as compared to Democrats. Hence, Trump is more likely to lose the elections.
Conclusion
Based on the facts presented, it is clear that Trump may fail to retain the office of the Presidency. His approaches to accepting the issues that continue to affect the overall election are still low and demanding. He has failed to head to the opinion polls, probabilities, and inter-state predictions. Consequently, Trumps populist approach to foreign policy has failed to allow him to acquire more votes. Thus, it is within his power to change and make the bold moves critical for the achievement of the best rank. The above action will enable him to acquire higher marks in all the areas and win against the democrat candidate Joe Biden.
References
Jérôme, Bruno, et al. State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden. PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 46, no. 4, 2020, pp. 14. Web.
Johnson, Thomas J., Magdalena Saldana, and Barbara K. Kaye. Think the Vote: Information Processing, Selective Exposure to Social Media, and Support for Trump and Clinton. International Journal of Communication, vol. 14, no. 1, 2020, pp. 2535. Web.
Lacatus, Corina. Populism and President Trumps Approach to Foreign Policy: An analysis of Tweets and Rally Speeches. Politics, vol. 3, no. 4, 2020, pp. 115. Web.
Lichtman, Allan J. The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020. Harvard Data Science Review. vol. 34, no. 3, 2020, pp. 145. Web.
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