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Abstract
The proposed project is devoted to the comprehensive analysis of threats that affect the work of the aviation industry. The relevance and topicality of the selected issue come from the strategically important role of civil aviation in modern society and the critical need to create the safe framework by evaluating and assessing all risks that might precondition undesired outcomes. The paper discusses the nature of existing threats, their roots, and the possible solutions that can be used to identify, detect, and manage them. Qualitative research methods and inductive approach are employed as the tool to ensure appropriate data collection and conduct the research of the selected question. The findings prove that the aviation industry faces multiple threats that emerge every day and become more complex, which means that there is a need for an appropriate change in organisation and employment of innovative methods of risk management to protect passengers.
Introduction
The pivotal aim of the presented study is the in-depth analysis of threats the modern aviation industry faces today, their impact on its functioning, and solutions that can be integrated to ensure practical risk management. The topicality of the problem is linked to the fact that today, aviation is a strategically important mean of transport that supports the functioning of the contemporary highly-globalised world and offers multiple opportunities for the further development of the international discourse. Due to its fundamental role, aviation attracts the attention of malefactors aiming at the destabilisation of the situation and damaging people. That is why international agencies emphasise the fact that there is a need for the improved management of all emerging threats that can be achieved by their evaluation and analysis (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2017). The paper offers information related to the topic acquired by analysing the relevant literature and reports of international agencies responsible for the effective and safe functioning of the civil aviation sphere. The given section suggests that background knowledge is required to understand the nature of the research, and the scope of problems touched upon in the study. The research questions, justification, and rationale for conducting the study are also offered within this part.
Background of the Research
Contemporary society critically depends on the effective functioning of the aviation sphere. The increased speed of life, availability of information, and the need for fast travelling create the environment beneficial for the further development of air transport. For this reason, the number of passengers using airlines services increases every year. According to the statistics provided by the International Civil Aviation Association (ICAO) (2019a), the total number of passengers carried on scheduled services constituted about 4.3 billion individuals. The number evidences the significance of aviation for the modern sphere, and all domains of human activity, including business, tourism, politics, and military ones. Moreover, there are forecasts that the industry will continue to evolve, which means that it will become even more critical and attract additional attention to different actors.
At the same time, the fast growth of civil aviation means the sophistication of the sphere and multiple processes peculiar to it. To meet all demands of passengers, airlines have to introduce many services and opportunities that can satisfy clients with various requests. For this reason, the existing airports can be viewed as complex units with developed infrastructure and numerous departments responsible for the accomplishment of different tasks. This fact explains the need for practical management tools that provide an opportunity to avoid undesired outcomes or mistakes that can precondition accidents. However, regardless of multiple attempts to establish the environment characterised by the absence of risks, there are still factors that can worsen outcomes and deteriorate the functioning of airport and companies. These aspects introduce the primary concerns for both regulatory agencies and airlines as they remain responsible for protecting passengers and guaranteeing that they will be able to reach various areas without any accidents. In such a way, the modern aviation sphere faces the need for the continuous collection of information about the new ways to cause damage to be ready to resist them and introduce new measures.
Another tendency peculiar to aviation today is its becoming an essential tool of international relations, which also means that it attracts the attention of multiple organisations interested in destabilising the situation, showing their activity, and spreading chaos. In numerous cases, these terrorist groups have substantial financing and resources sufficient for using the most innovative tools to destroy existing security systems and damage aircraft or passengers (ICAO, 2019b). For this reason, specialists are sure that having entered one of its significant evolution stages characterised by the rise and multiple opportunities, civil aviation has also made itself extremely vulnerable because of these very features (Stewart and Mueller, 2017). In other words, the fast rise is followed by a high level of interest and the emergence of loopholes that can be used by malefactors. For this reason, ICAO, IATA, and other regulatory agencies are interested in initiating the dialogue about the future of aviation and improved management of new threats that emerge every day and might precondition damage.
Finally, the coherent society can be characterised by the increased attention to human lives and the recognition of its unique value. It means that the demands to security become stricter every year with the primary goal to create an extremely safe environment with the absence of risks (Benny, 2016). For this reason, the task to remain informed about new threats acquires the top priority as the only way to be ready to respond effectively and avoid serious accidents.
Altogether, the situation in the civil aviation sphere remains complex today. There are multiple options for its further development and evolution, which means that it can benefit from a substantial rise and becoming even more meaningful aspect in the life of people, communities, and countries. From another side, the unique strategic importance means that aviation becomes one of the main aims of malefactors and terrorist groups trying to invent new ways to damage aircraft and passengers. For this reason, a better understanding of emerging threats and ways to cope with them is vital at the moment.
Justification of the Research
The choice of the theme of the project comes from several factors. First of all, as it has already been stated, the aviation industry plays a fundamental role in the modern globalised world as it serves as the facilitator of international relations and potent political tool. For this reason, the stable work of the sphere is a guarantee of the future evolution of the global society and states ability to cooperate. Correctly realising the importance of the given field, multiple agencies try to establish a working environment characterised by the absence of threats and effective functioning of security systems that will guarantee safety to all actors involved in it. However, it is impossible without the constant monitoring of the current situation and the continuous collection of data needed to be informed and respond to new changes. Under these conditions, the project acquires specific importance as it is an attempt to create a list of threats topical at the moment and the ways to solve them.
Furthermore, the choice of the topic can be justified by the fact that the current stage of technologies development can be called a revolution. The sophistication of technologies and new devices mean the radical changes in the way aviation functions and how the most significant processes are organised. It helps airlines to function more effectively and provide its services to the increased number of passengers every year. Moreover, the extensive implementation of innovative technologies, applications, and systems create the basis for new improvements and empowerment of civil aviation. The scope of changes is substantial, and it is expected that the speed of alterations will increase in the next decade because of the digitalisation of society (Arcurio, Nakamura and Armborst, 2018). This tendency is critical, and it is vital to realise how aviation functions today, which is one of the pivotal purposes of the whole project.
Unfortunately, the emergence of new ways to perform tasks also means that there are new ways to damage civil aviation and spread havoc, damage aircraft, and hurt passengers. In the recent decade, the number of threats duplicated and continues to grow as such a phenomenon as cybercrime and terrorism become more topical for the modern world (Price, 2018). Malefactors also use innovative devices and applications to create loopholes in security systems and organise accidents. For this reason, the industry faces multiple challenges presupposing the need to introduce new methods of managing emerging threats and minimising risks associated with them. For this reason, the importance of the given research project becomes evident as it focuses on new hazards, their impact on civil aviation, and methods to resist them.
Finally, existing ICAO and IATAs reports also emphasise the need for the investigation, data collection and research, as the only effective ways to be prepared to face new problems and solve them effectively. For this reason, the enhanced information related to emerging threats is fundamental for civil aviation sphere as it creates the framework for building new security systems and selecting tools to resist attacks, various types of risks, and avoid accidents. From this perspective, the choice of the topic is justified by the fact that it can help to enhance the existing understanding of the problem and initiate its discussion. Altogether, the selection of the research topic comes from the factors mentioned above. There is a need for the collection of information related to new threats with the primary goal to process it and discuss the effectiveness of existing methods to resist them.
Research Questions
The scope of the project and its importance for the improved understanding of the current state of civil aviation, threats, and ways to solve it impact the formulation of several research questions that will guarantee the credibility and relevance of findings, their practical utility, and the ability to facilitate the following research of the topic.
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What are the state and central concerns of civil aviation today?
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What are the most important threats that should be given specific attention because of their complexity and substantial harm associated with them?
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What is the current approach to managing threats and minimising risks associated with them?
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What are the new methods of managing threats that appear as a response to new hazards and risks associated with the following evolution of technologies and aviation sphere?
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Can the new approaches to organising security cope with emerging threats and be effective enough to guarantee safety to individuals?
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What are the possible future challenges and changes to the process of organisation and managing of threats that should be considered?
The presented research questions are supported by objectives that drive the course of the research and should be accomplished to ensure that the topic is analysed and the major issues are discussed. These are:
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to analyse existing threats that affect the work of the aviation industry
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to create the theoretical framework for the project by reviewing the relevant and credible literature and collecting data
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to research methods, tools, and approaches that can be used to detect, identify, and manage existing threats
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to evaluate the possible use of drones, improved security systems, and innovative software as measures to attain better outcomes
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to discuss the nature of these measures and opportunities for their integration in the work of airlines
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to conclude about the current state of the problem and create the basis for new projects related to the same question
The given research questions and objectives form the framework of the whole project. They ensure that the most relevant themes and ideas will be included in the discussion and analysed with the primary goal to improve the knowledge of the problem and provide new details that are vital for the enhanced understanding.
Literature Review
Introduction
The first section of the presented report is devoted to the analysis of the current literature that is related to the selected issue. The review creates a theoretical basis for the discussion as it outlines the existing threats and challenges the modern aviation faces, the current approaches to managing these hazards, and other problems that might be associated with the topic under discussion. With the primary goal to establish the framework, there is an in-depth analysis of academic and scholarly sources touching upon the similar issues, ICAO and IATA reports, and other secondary sources that contain the needed knowledge and can be used to enhance the existing vision of the theme. The literature review also helps acquire a better image of how current security systems function and the most relevant threats managed. For this reason, the following section offers information collected from relevant sources.
Another important aspect about literature review is its ability to shed light on options and newest ideas related to organising the work of airlines and minimising the level of risk in the sphere. In such a way, the selected sources outline how innovative technologies, such as drones, new applications and devices can be employed with the pivotal aim to create a perfect security system with the absence of loopholes or the ability to respond to new threats effectively. All sources selected for the review should be considered credible, relevant, and scholarly as they come from research databases. Moreover, the section contains information from international organisations reports and their findings. For this reason, it is an essential part of the project offering the knowledge needed for the further discussion and analysis of the problems mentioned in the previous paragraphs.
The Major Themes Related to Civil Aviation and Emerging Threats
The modern globalised world critically depends on the stable functioning of the aviation industry. It is the only mode of transport that offers passengers an opportunity to achieve distant locations in short terms and with a high level of comfort. Additionally, it is considered the safest mode of transport with the lowest rate of deaths or accidents (Price and Forrest, 2016). These advantages attract travellers, and millions of people use airlines services every year, which contributes to the fast evolution of the sector. However, this tendency introduces additional complexity of basic operations and attracts the attention of malefactors who might use violent acts to spread panic. It means that today, aviation faces diverse threats, and there is a need for their effective determination and management.
The modern attitude to the organisation of security in the aviation sphere is mainly preconditioned by the rise of terrorism and the appearance of a significant threat to passengers safety. The 9/11 attacks triggered a vigorous discussion between various agencies regarding the methods to check passengers, monitor vulnerabilities, and minimise risks (Price & Forrest 2013). The given terrorist attack showed the existence of many gaps in security systems and evidenced the need for the reconsideration of the majority of approaches to make them more useful. The tendency towards the further rise of terrorist threat and emergence of new radical organisations along with the growing number of maleficent actions and cybercrime contributed to the shift of priorities towards a full risk-based paradigm that can consider all possible factors and create a safe environment (A risk-based approach to aviation safety regulation, no date). Today, there are still many debates around the ways to make security systems more reliable and the main elements of the discussed approach that can be improved.
From another perspective, the methods that emerged after the 9/11 attacks and systems that appeared as a response to the high level of risk gradually become outdated today because of the massive digitalisation of society and the complexity of tools that can be used to harm airlines or passengers. Under these conditions, ICAO and IATA insist on the establishment and introduction of an innovative, flexible, and updating approach that would be able to ensure the protection and consider all hazards topical today. That is why the constant improvement of systems is one of the major themes related to civil aviation today. Specialists working in the field and researchers emphasise the critical importance of this aspect for the successful evolution of the sphere. At the same time, this process is followed by the classification of threats and hazards that play a vital role in the aviation industry and should be addressed first of all.
The need for the correct understanding of relevant threats and their nature is linked to the necessity to develop effective protective measures and avoid deterioration of the spheres functioning. For this reason, the existing ICAOs reports are updated and outline new hazards that should be taken into account along with the traditional ones (ICAO, 2011). For instance, the terrorist threat, which has always been viewed as the main concern, preserves its critical importance; however, the number of issues related to this term is diversified. Today, the cyber threat is one of the vital emerging risks that can be both linked to terrorism and other malefactors acting separately. The complexity and importance of this phenomenon are evidenced by the fact that the modern security systems are designed with the primary goal to resist attacks from other servers via the Internet or other networks (Price, 2018). Moreover, there is also an insider threat that becomes more topical today as attackers look for an opportunity to create loopholes by using employees and their knowledge. In different cases, insider threat can be associated with the activity of single specialists trying to achieve their own goals.
The list of emerging threats can also be extended because of the growing availability and affordability of drones which can be used for different purposes. These unmanned aircraft possess an opportunity to reach various areas and remain unnoticed, which is critically important both for security specialists and attackers (Hall, 2015). Under these conditions, it is necessary to organise protective measures considering the high risk of being attacked by drones, which introduces additional complexity for specialists and airlines. The first rise of the given technology demonstrates the scope of the problem as the digital era establishes multiple challenges to airlines.
The modern civil aviation sphere has several concerns that should be addressed. These include the increased importance of a safe environment and the need to organise and manage new threats that appear every day. The list of threats is updated and remains diverse, however, in terms of the given project it is vital to consider a terrorist threat, cyber threat, human factors including insider threat, technologies and drones as the central problems that should be solved to avoid issues in the future.
Current Approach
Due to the complexity of challenges that emerge every day and the need to consider multiple aspects, the modern aviation sphere adheres to the risk-based approach that is taken as one of the most potent frameworks among the existing ones. International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) encourages the adoption of a Risk-Based Surveillance (RBS) to aviation regulation as the method that can help to minimise potential threats and find appropriate measures to work with them (ICAO, 2017).
In accordance with this paradigm (see Figure 1), the on-going safety performance can be achieved by combining specific criteria for assessment, effective surveillance schedule, analysis of outcomes, and creation of organisational risk profile vital for the consideration of new threats (A risk-based approach to aviation safety regulation, no date). Decision-making related to the assessment of new hazards and introduction of appropriate measures should rest on data acquired to create the framework for the discussion and investigation (see Figure 2).
In accordance with these recommendations, the modern civil aviation sector is expected to become more effective in resisting already known and new threats. Moreover, the International Air Transportation Association (IATA) (no date) accepts the importance of the outlined paradigm and promotes the implementation of continuously improving security management systems. In this regard, one of the fundamental elements in the functioning of any airline is the fostering and establishment of a dynamic and risk-based approach to security to guarantee the absence of serious vulnerabilities and creation of the safe environment needed to protect passengers (ICAO, 2017a). It means that the potent character of the discussed strategy is accepted at the international level with no alternatives that can replace it at the moment.
To resist existing threats effectively and create a system that will be able to cope with all problematic issues that emerge today due to the rise of technologies, it is critical to acquire an improved understanding of the concept of risk and its basic components. The dominant perspective focuses on the probability of incurring some type of loss (Elias, 2014). In other words, it is a chance for the appearance of undesired situations that might deteriorate the work aircraft, personnel, or the whole airport and pose a threat to the health of passengers and their lives. Regarding the context of security and the requirement to minimise all possible complications, the concept of risk is taken as a complex phenomenon consisting of three elements such as threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences (UK CAA, no date). The main advantage of a full risk-based practice is that it offers multiple categorical techniques and approaches that help to reveal, determine, and quantify threats and vulnerabilities and secure individuals. It also becomes a potent measure as regardless of the increased sophistication of the contemporary aviation sphere, a set of dangers and undesired events in the aviation environment remains limited.
Considering the given definition, risk-based aviation security aims at eliminating or mitigating all three elements mentioned above to guarantee the high level of protection to all passengers. The first broad category includes all existing threats that might deteriorate the work of civil aviation and lay the ground for the emergence of critical situations. The current threat framework offered by multiple agencies such as Transportation Security Administration and Office of Intelligence (OI) includes information about main problematic issues that should be taken into account when aligning the work of the security system (Price & Forrest 2013). Being the part of the risk-based approach, it helps to create effective measures in advance and act in appropriate ways when emergencies occur. That is why it has become one of the most popular methods accepted by airlines and agencies such as IATA and ICAO (IATA, 2019). For instance, risk-based screening is offered as a fundamental element of all security systems as it helps to reveal and eliminate dangers.
The in-time detection of existing vulnerabilities and their elimination is another vital element of the modern risk-based paradigm. The fact is that the development of the aviation sphere stipulates its further sophistication and appearance of several complex processes that are required to ensure well-aligned work of the sector. In its turn, this situation gives rise to new opportunities for malefactors to use appearing gaps in security systems and damage aircraft or airports (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2017). In this regard, the work with vulnerabilities, their classification and suggestion of effective measures to eliminate them is a core component of the risk-based approach, which guarantees its high effectiveness and the ability to meet all requirements to safety that exist today. ICAO and IATA continuously renew the list of all possible loopholes in frameworks and provide measures to mitigate them (ICAO, 2017b). It makes a fully risk-based approach one of the best possible alternatives for the modern aviation sector.
As for the consequences associated with multiple risk factors, they are also taken as a part of a risk-based approach. The main task of any security system is not only to prevent the appearance of critical situations (though it holds the top priority), but also be able to work with negative results, assist passengers or workers who face a threat, and restore the work of airlines (Price & Forrest 2013). For this reason, the discussed approach incorporates the existing methods of working with any outcomes that might appear because of various undesired issues or risk factors. The constant monitoring of information in different countries and cooperation between agencies contribute to the generation of a broad knowledge base that might be used in situations to decrease the negative impact and mitigate consequences. That is why it should also be taken as another critical element of the risk-based approach that contributes to its increased effectiveness in the modern environment.
Risk-based surveillance and security models have proven their effectiveness in multiple cases and are still viewed as the fundamental aspect of civil aviation. However, the literature recognises that need to continue working on their enhancement to remain capable of resisting new challenges and threats (Price & Forrest 2013). For instance, using AI technologies as data collection and processing methods, specialists can boost their effectiveness and attain better risk assessment and identification results (ICAO, 2017b). The current approach is characterised by the gradual shift towards more digitalised and software-dependent solutions that can help to remain flexible and effective in resisting all hazards that arise today. Numerous sources acknowledge that the risk-based framework should be supported by new technologies as the only way to follow the progress, which also provides malefactors with new strategies for damaging airlines and interfering with their functioning.
Terrorism
Speaking about the threats modern civil aviation faces, it is impossible to disregard terrorism as one of the problems of contemporary society. The anti-terrorist war in the Middle Eastern region, and activity and power of ISIS, and the recent violent acts aimed at destructing airlines and causing much harm to civilians show that airlines remain vulnerable to external threats (IATA, no date). Moreover, as stated previously, the technological evolution and creation of new devices can be viewed as a two-edged sword also providing the new opportunities and tools for attackers to look for loopholes and destroy security systems (Price, 2018). Under these conditions, organisation and management of terrorist threat remain one of the major concerns today.
Multiple authors, as well as ICAO and IATA, warn that today, the nature of terrorism alters and the traditional attacks presupposing the use of explosives, weapon, and force become replaced by other, more sophisticated tools (ICAO, 2017b). Accepting the need to remain informed about these risks and create systems capable of resisting theme, specialists also insist on the necessity of collecting information related to new forms of terrorism and its analysis (ICAO, 2017b). Because of the centralised attack planning, today, terrorist groups have the chance to collect resources and skills to introduce new sophisticated tactics against effective systems and hardened targets (ICAO, 2017b). At the same time, the decentralisation also poses a problem as there is diversification of tactics, techniques, and weapons that can be used to damage easier targets including public areas in airports, terminals (such as attacks in Belgium on 22 March 2016, Turkey 28 June 2017) (IATA. 2019). For this reason, the threat coming from terrorist groups remains high and should be taken into account as one of the central issues.
From another perspective, the radicalisation of individuals and groups in different regions of the planet results in the increasing risks for fields that have not had such issues previously (ICAO, 2017b). The terrorist organisations are capable of attacking airlines across a broad geographical area by using their forces, or by hiring foreign fighters or recruiting workers having access to critically important information (ICAO, 2017b). It means that the given threat evolves and becomes more significant today. The use of cyber means to perform acts of violence is a comparatively new form of aggression with the high potential risks to air traffic management, aircraft and airport systems, and management (ICAO, 2017b). In such a way, the development of terrorist threats is a source of significant concern stipulating the emergence of the demand for new transport networks that are safer and can resist a new wave of cyberattacks (ICAO, 2020). Recent actions of this sort precondition multiple delays and confusion in schedules, which should be taken as a reminder of the high level of risk and the chance of causing even more substantial harm to aviation (ICAO, 2017b). Under these conditions, the whole aviation community should be vigilant about the given issue and be ready to secure the most valuable information, communication technology systems and data from interference resulting in the decreased effectiveness of measures used to protect individuals. This task is becoming one of the integral parts of the risk-based approach and demands specific resources and attention of specialists working in the sphere.
The evolution of terrorist threat results in the need to continue upgrading the existing security systems and preparing them for a new wave of attacks. ICAO and IATA (ICAO, 2017b) are united in the opinion that the diversification of the existing means and their innovative character cannot be unnoticed and should result in the change in the approach used to organise and manage existing issues. For this reason, the current recommendations view terrorism not only as acts of violence performed by using rude force but also as any actions that might create the basis for the deteriorating of the existing working environment (S
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